Why Transformational Science Can't Get Funded:

The Einstein Problem

Proposal declined. Insufficient institutional support. No preliminary data. Applicant lacks relevant expertise—they work in a patent office, not a research laboratory. The proposed research is too speculative and challenges well-established physical laws without adequate justification. The principal investigator is 26 years old and has no prior experience in physics.

This would have been the fate of Albert Einstein in 1905, had the NSF existed as it does today. Even with grant calls requesting ‘transformative ideas,’ an Einstein proposal would have been rejected outright. And yet, that year 1905 has been called Einstein’s miracle year. Yes, he was a patent clerk working in Bern, Switzerland, without a university affiliation. He had neither access to a laboratory nor equipment. He worked in isolation on evenings and weekends and was unknown in the physics community. Yet, despite those disadvantages, he produced four revolutionary papers on the Photoelectric Effect, Brownian motion, Special Relativity, and the famous E=mc² energy-mass equivalence.

Taken as a whole, the work was purely theoretical. There were no preliminary data. The papers challenged fundamental assumptions of the field and, as such, were highly speculative and definitively high-risk. There were no broader impacts because there were no immediate practical applications. And the work was inherently multidisciplinary, bridging mechanics, optics, and thermodynamics. Yet, the work was transformative. By modern grant standards, Einstein’s work failed every criterion.

The Modern Grant Application - A Thought Experiment

Let’s imagine Einstein’s 1905 work packaged as a current NSF proposal. What would it look like, and how would it fare in peer review?

Einstein’s Hypothetical NSF Proposal

Project Title: Reconceptualizing the Fundamental Nature of Space, Time, and the Propagation of Light

Principal Investigator: Albert Einstein, Technical Expert Third Class, Swiss Federal Patent Office

Institution: None (individual applicant)

Requested Duration: 3 years

Budget: $150,000 (minimal - just salary support and travel to one conference)

Project Summary

This proposal challenges the fundamental assumptions underlying Newtonian mechanics and Maxwell’s electromagnetic theory. I propose that space and time are not absolute but relative, dependent on the observer’s state of motion. This requires abandoning the concept of the luminiferous ether and reconceptualizing the relationship between matter and energy. The work will be entirely theoretical, relying on thought experiments and mathematical derivation to establish a new framework for understanding physical reality.

How NSF Review Panels Would Evaluate This

Intellectual Merit: Poor

Criterion: Does the proposed activity advance knowledge and understanding?

Panel Assessment: The proposal makes extraordinary claims without adequate preliminary data. The applicant asserts that Newtonian mechanics—the foundation of physics for over 200 years—requires fundamental revision yet provides no experimental evidence supporting this radical departure.

Specific Concerns:

Lack of Preliminary Results: The proposal contains no preliminary data demonstrating the feasibility of the approach. There are no prior publications by the applicant in peer-reviewed physics journals. The applicant references his own unpublished manuscripts, which cannot be evaluated.

Methodology Insufficient: The proposed “thought experiments” do not constitute rigorous scientific methodology. How will hypotheses be tested? What experimental validation is planned? The proposal describes mathematical derivations but provides no pathway to empirical verification. Without experimental confirmation, these remain untestable speculations.

Contradicts Established Science: The proposal challenges Newton’s laws of motion and the existence of the luminiferous ether—concepts supported by centuries of successful physics. While scientific progress requires questioning assumptions, such fundamental challenges require extraordinary evidence. The applicant provides none.

Lack of Expertise: The PI works at a patent office and has no formal research position. He has no advisor supporting this work, no collaborators at research institutions, and no track record in theoretical physics. His biosketch lists a doctorate from the University of Zurich but no subsequent research appointments or publications in relevant areas.

Representative Reviewer Comments:

Reviewer 1: “While the mathematical treatment shows some sophistication, the fundamental premise—that simultaneity is relative—contradicts basic physical intuition and has no experimental support. The proposal reads more like philosophy than physics.”

Reviewer 2: “The applicant’s treatment of the photoelectric effect proposes that light behaves as discrete particles, directly contradicting Maxwell’s well-established wave theory. This is not innovation; it’s contradiction without justification.”

Reviewer 3: “I appreciate the applicant’s ambition, but this proposal is not ready for funding. I recommend that the PI establish himself at a research institution, publish preliminary findings, and gather experimental evidence before requesting support for such speculative work. Perhaps a collaboration with experimentalists at a major university would strengthen future submissions.”

Broader Impacts: Very Poor

Criterion: Does the proposed activity benefit society and achieve specific societal outcomes?

Panel Assessment: The proposal fails to articulate any concrete broader impacts. The work is purely theoretical with no clear pathway to societal benefit.

Specific Concerns:

No Clear Applications: The proposal does not explain how reconceptualizing space and time would benefit society. What problems would this solve? What technologies would it enable? The PI suggests the work is “fundamental” but provides no examples of potential applications.

No Educational Component: There is no plan for training students or postdocs. The PI works alone at a patent office, with no access to students and no institutional infrastructure for education and training.

No Outreach Plan: The proposal includes no activities to communicate findings to the public or policymakers. There is no plan for broader dissemination beyond potential publication in physics journals.

Questionable Impact Timeline: Even if the proposed theories are correct, the proposal provides no timeline for practical applications. How long until these ideas translate into societal benefit? The proposal is silent on this critical question.

Representative Reviewer Comments:

Reviewer 1: “The broader impacts section is essentially non-existent. The PI states that ‘fundamental understanding of nature has intrinsic value,’ but this does not meet NSF’s requirement for concrete societal outcomes.”

Reviewer 2: “I cannot envision how this work, even if successful, would lead to practical applications within a reasonable timeframe. The proposal needs to articulate a clear pathway from theory to impact.”

Reviewer 3: “NSF has limited resources and must prioritize research with demonstrable benefits to society. This proposal does not make that case.”

Panel Summary and Recommendation

Intellectual Merit Rating: Poor
Broader Impacts Rating: Very Poor

Overall Assessment: While the panel appreciates the PI’s creativity and mathematical ability, the proposal is highly speculative, lacks preliminary data, contradicts established physical laws without sufficient justification, and fails to articulate broader impacts. The PI’s lack of institutional affiliation and research track record raises concerns about feasibility.

The panel notes that the PI appears talented and encourages resubmission after:

1. Establishing an independent position at a research institution

2. Publishing preliminary findings in peer-reviewed journals

3. Developing collaborations with experimental physicists

4. Articulating a more straightforward pathway to practical applications

5. Demonstrating broader impacts through education and outreach

Recommendation: Decline

Panel Consensus: Not competitive for funding in the current cycle. The proposal would need substantial revision and preliminary results before it could be considered favorably.

The Summary Statement Einstein Would Receive

Dear Dr. Einstein,

Thank you for your submission to the National Science Foundation. Unfortunately, your proposal, “Reconceptualizing the Fundamental Nature of Space, Time, and the Propagation of Light,” was not recommended for funding.

The panel recognized your ambition and mathematical capabilities but identified several concerns that prevented a favorable recommendation:

- Lack of preliminary data supporting the feasibility of your approach - Insufficient experimental validation of your theoretical claims
- Absence of institutional support and research infrastructure - Inadequate articulation of broader impacts and societal benefits

We encourage you to address these concerns and consider resubmission in a future cycle. You may wish to establish collaborations with experimentalists and develop a clearer pathway from theory to application.

We appreciate your interest in NSF funding and wish you success in your future endeavors.

Sincerely,
NSF Program Officer

And that would be it. Einstein’s miracle year—four papers that transformed physics and laid the groundwork for quantum mechanics, nuclear energy, GPS satellites, and our modern understanding of the cosmos—would have died in peer review, never funded, never attempted.

The system would have protected us from wasting taxpayer dollars on such speculation. It would have worked exactly as designed.

The Preliminary Data Paradox

The contemporary scientific grant review process implicitly expects foundational work in transformative science to present preliminary data, despite knowing that truly groundbreaking ideas often do not originate from such tangible evidence but instead evolves through thought experiments and mathematical derivations, as Einstein did. This unrealistic expectation stifles innovation at its core - the process essentially forces researchers like Einstein to abandon pure theoretical exploration and confine them to a narrow experimental framework, where they cannot freely challenge existing paradigms, even when their work holds no immediate empirical validation yet promises to revolutionize our understanding fundamentally.

The Risk-Aversion Problem

Often, in grant reviews, I see a very junior reviewer criticize work as being too risky—dooming the proposal to failure—while simultaneously sensing their admiration for the promise and transformative nature of the work. The conservative nature and risk-averse mentality of modern grant review panels are deeply rooted in the scientific community’s culture that values incremental advances over speculative leaps - a bias born from career motivations wherein funding decisions can make or break one’s professional trajectory. Reviewers often exhibit reluctance to invest support into proposals like Einstein’s, as they pose potential controversy and may not align with personal research interests due to the associated risks of failure - a reflection of how science has traditionally evolved through evolutionary rather than revolutionary processes within academic institutions.

The Credentials Catch-22

To secure funding in today’s scientific landscape, one often needs institutional affiliation and an impressive publication record that reflects strong research credentials - a catch-22 scenario wherein groundbreaking innovators with no formal backing or prior experience find it challenging to gain the trust of reviewers. This requirement discriminates against fresh perspectives from individuals such as Einstein, who was working outside established institutions and did not have access to mentorship, which is typically deemed necessary for academic recognition - a stark contrast in how transformative outsider thinkers with unconventional backgrounds historically nurtured science.

The Short-Term Timeline Problem

Einstein developed special relativity over years with no milestones, no quarterly reports, no renewals. How would he answer, ‘What will you accomplish in Year 2?” The funding cycle durations set forth by major grant agencies, such as NSF’s typical three to five years for regular grants and the NIH’s maximum of five years, do not accommodate the long periods necessary for fully developing foundational theories that require time-intensive evolution. Such timelines impose an unfair constraint on researchers like Einstein, whose transformative ideas did not evolve within strict milestones but unfolded in an unconstrained fashion - showcasing the incompatibility of this model with truly revolutionary scientific discoveries where a linear progression is unrealistic and even counterproductive.

The Impact Statement Trap

Requirements for demonstrating immediate “broader impacts” or societal benefits pose significant obstacles to transformative research proposals that often envision far-reaching implications beyond their direct applications - an aspect Einstein’s work exemplifies best with its foundational role in advancing physics. The trap lies when reviewers, fearing potential misuse of speculative science or unable to perceive future benefits due to cognitive biases, force research proposals into a mold where immediate practical impact takes precedence over visionary scientific contributions, further marginalizing transformative studies that could potentially unlock new dimensions in various fields.

The Interdisciplinary Gap

The inherent disciplinarity of current grant funding schemes disconnects them from the interdisciplinary essence required for revolutionary research proposals like Einstein’s - a reality where transformative work frequently transcends conventional academic boundaries by merging concepts across multiple fields. This approach often results in an exclusion not only based on institutional affiliation but also because of its challenge to compartmentalized funding models that struggle with the non-linear, cross-disciplinary nature integral to truly transformative science - a significant obstacle for proposals inherently interdisciplinary yet unable to fit neatly within program structures or expertise.

The hypothetical funding scenarios for transformational science, as presented through the lens of Albert Einstein’s groundbreaking work, illustrate the inherent challenges faced by revolutionary ideas. To further highlight this problem, let’s take a look at other seminal discoveries that may have been overlooked or deemed unworthy of support under current grant review criteria:

Copernicus’ Heliocentric Model: In a contemporary setting, Copernicus’ heliocentric model might face skepticism due to its challenge to the widely accepted geocentric view of the universe. Lacking preliminary data and facing resistance from established religious beliefs, his proposal would likely be rejected under modern grant review criteria, despite its ultimate validation through observation and mathematical proof.

Gregor Mendel’s Pea Plant Experiments: The foundation of modern genetics was laid by Mendel’s pea plant experiments, yet his work remained largely unnoticed for decades after its initial publication. A grant reviewer in 1863 would likely have dismissed Mendel’s findings as too speculative and without immediate practical applications, thereby overlooking the fundamental insights he provided about heredity and genetic inheritance.

mRNA Vaccines: Katalin Karikó spent decades struggling to fund mRNA therapeutic research. Too risky. Too speculative. No clear applications. Penn demoted her. NIH rejected her grants. Reviewers wanted proof that mRNA could work as a therapeutic platform, but without funding, she couldn’t generate that proof. Then COVID-19 hit, and mRNA vaccines saved millions of lives. The technology that couldn’t get funded became one of the most important medical breakthroughs of the century.

Why does all of this matter now? First, the evidence is mounting that American science is at an inflection point. The rate of truly disruptive discoveries—those that reshape fields rather than incrementally advance them—has been declining for decades, even as scientific output has grown. Both NSF and NIH leadership recognize this troubling trend.

This innovation crisis manifests in the problems we cannot solve. Cancer and Alzheimer’s have resisted decades of intensive research. AI alignment and safety remain fundamentally unsolved as we deploy increasingly powerful systems. We haven’t returned to the moon in over 50 years. In my own field of neuroscience, incremental progress has failed to produce treatments for the diseases that devastate millions of families.

These failures point to a deeper problem: we’ve optimized our funding system for incremental advances, not transformational breakthroughs. Making matters worse, we’re losing ground internationally. China’s funding models allow longer timelines and embrace higher risk. European ERC grants support more adventurous research. Many of our best researchers now weigh opportunities overseas or in industry, where they can pursue riskier ideas with greater freedom.

What Needs to Change

Fixing this requires fundamental changes at multiple levels—from how we structure programs to how we evaluate proposals to how we support unconventional researchers.

Create separate funding streams for high-risk research. NSF and NIH need more programs that emulate DARPA’s high-risk, high-reward model. These programs should be insulated from traditional grant review: no preliminary data required, longer timelines (10+ years), and peer review conducted by scientists who have themselves taken major risks and succeeded. I propose that 10 percent of each agency’s budget be set aside for “Einstein Grants”—awards that take the view opposite the status quo. Judge proposals on originality and potential impact, not feasibility and preliminary data. Accept that most will fail, but the few that succeed will be transformational.

Protect exploratory research within traditional programs. Even standard grant programs should allow pivots when researchers discover unexpected directions. We should fund people with track records of insight, not just projects with detailed timelines. Judge proposals on the quality of thinking, not the completeness of deliverables.

Reform peer review processes. The current system needs three critical changes. First, separate review tracks for incremental versus transformational proposals—they require fundamentally different evaluation criteria. Second, don’t let a single negative review kill bold ideas; if three reviewers are enthusiastic and one is skeptical, fund it. Third, value originality over feasibility. The most transformational ideas often sound impossible until someone proves otherwise.

Support alternative career paths. We should fund more researchers outside traditional academic institutions and recognize that the best science doesn’t always emerge from R1 universities. Explicitly value interdisciplinary training and create flexible career paths that don’t punish researchers who take time to develop unconventional ideas. Track where our most creative researchers go when they leave academia—if we’re consistently losing them to industry or foreign institutions, that’s a failure signal we must heed.

Acknowledge the challenge ahead. These reforms require sustained political will across multiple administrations and consistent support from Congress. They demand patience—accepting that transformational breakthroughs can’t be scheduled or guaranteed. But the alternative is clear: we continue optimizing for incremental progress while the fundamental problems remain unsolved and our international competitors embrace the risk we’ve abandoned.

The choice before us is stark. We can optimize the current system for productivity—incremental papers, measurable progress—or we can create space for transformative discovery. We cannot have both with the same funding mechanisms.

The cost of inaction is clear: we will miss the next Einstein, fall further behind in fundamental discovery, watch science become a bureaucratic exercise, and lose what made American science into a powerhouse of discovery.

This requires action at every level. Scientists must advocate for reform and be willing to champion risky proposals. Program officers must have the courage to fund work that reviewers call too speculative. Policymakers must create new funding models and resist the temptation to demand near-term results. The public must understand that breakthrough science looks different from incremental progress—it’s messy, unpredictable, and often wrong before it’s right.

In 1905, Einstein changed our understanding of the universe while working in a patent office with no grant funding. Today, our funding system would never have let him try. We need to fix that.